What We Expected (And What We Didn’t)

By: Jon Kerr

While this baseball season is still in its infancy, this fact does not prevent us who follow the Cubs from forming opinions, rational or otherwise. Here are my initial thoughts on the first week of the 2008 season:

WHAT WE EXPECTED; VALIDATED:

*Derrek Lee is back. Remember the guy who wore out right and lefthanders in 2005? They guy who drove the ball consistently to right center field? This is the D-Lee the Cubs paid $75 million for in early 2006, only to have him break his wrist in a collision with Rafael Furcal one night in LA two years ago. His .455 average, .833 slugging and 25 total bases through 7 games is early proof the Cubs mercurial leader is at full strength.

*Big Z was worth the money. Here’s my pitch to Chicago water and coffee marketing reps - will someone step up and give this guy an endorsement? If Rachel Ray can pitch Dunkin’ Donuts, why can’t our caffeine-challenged ace? Like the paparazzi with Britney Spears, we know Carlos Zambrano comes with an extra large scoop of drama. If Z were a Ben and Jerry’s flavor of ice cream, he’d be Chunky Monkey. But we love the production - 12 strikeouts and an ERA just over 1.00 after two starts. With the security of a long contract, Z is forgetting past April failures, throwing with purpose and like a guy who could win 20.

*Alfonso Soriano likes to swing the bat, which makes him a perfect 4, 5 or 6 hitter. Unfortunately, he hits leadoff. I will write more about this during the season as this is a debate worthy of more time and space. At this point in his career, Soriano is the hitter he’s going to be - 30 home runs, .300 average, 40 doubles, 20 stolen bases, 150 strikeouts. What angers Cubs fans is when he was signed in 2007, they didn’t actually believe he would be hitting first. Batting deeper in the lineup, Soriano’s Q rating at Wrigley would be appreciable higher.

*Brian Roberts needs to come here. The only reason the Baltimore second baseman is not a Cub is Orioles owner Peter Angelos. How do you explain why this deal was “in negotiations” for almost 5 months? It doesn’t take that long for Simon, Paula and the other guy to choose the next “American Idol” for Pete’s sake. How would a switch-hitting, contact hitter who isn’t afraid to take a pitch look at the top of the Cubs line up right now? Pretty darn good.

*Kerry Wood can close. Sure, he blew up in the opener. But since then, Wood has been lights out, saving 3 of 4 save opportunities. It’s never mental with Wood - this guy is nails between the ears - it’s always physical. If his back and shoulder can hold up during these chilly first few months, he will save at least 30 games this year.

NOT EXPECTED; SOME SURPRISES ARE OK, OTHERS NOT SO MUCH

*The right fielder from Japan can play. Whether he was taking the spring to get comfortable with Major League pitching - he barely hit .200 - it looks as though Kosuke Fukudome knew what he was doing all along. From his theatrics on opening day, to his slap hit that scored the winning runs April 6 at Wrigley Field, to his javelin-like arm in right field, this guy is worth every yen, er, dollar the Cubs invested in him. Fans, media and marketers are all winners here. Forget the “Indiana Jones” sequel; this will be the runaway box office hit of the summer.

*The league has caught up to Ted Lilly. Or are we seeing the lingering effects of his mound meltdown in Game 2 of the NLDS last October? In ‘07, Lilly was a legit number two starter. Some thought he should start over Big Z in game 1 of the playoffs vs. Arizona. Whatever it is, we know his two-start ERA of 9.72 will come down, we just don’t know how much.

*Ryan Dempster can start. His seven-inning, one-hit shutout performance vs. the Pirates April 9 is proof he’s going to be in the rotation for awhile. A below .500 career starter with an ERA well over 4.00, his move to the rotation was not met with overwhelming support. But with Wood and Carlos Marmol set to take over as closer, this was addition by subtraction. A great clubhouse guy who is a bit of a flake (and I say that in the most flattering way possible), Demp should easily hit 12-15 wins and 200-plus innings.

*Where are the Cubs? OK, let me rant here a bit. I come home Wednesday night, flip on the TV, only to find Bulls-Magic on Comcast, “Family Guy” on WGN and “King of Queens” on the U. I have Direct TV, so I am CLTV-less, and after flipping through each channel in the sports-filled 600’s, I am forced to flip on the radio and the Pat and Ron show. Not even the ESPN 5 channel, my typical go-to signal in these rare situations, has the game. In this Sam Zell-fied, on-demand, downloadable, mega media conglomerate overindulged universe we live in, there should never be a scenario where I can’t find the Cubs game! Anybody with me? Or better yet, any ideas in this situation?

It would have been OK if I could have heard Ron Santo try and pronounce Fukudome.

I would have turned the TV sound down for that.

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Jon Kerr is a freelance writer. A graduate of Michigan State University, he is a former sportscaster at CLTV. He is also a Cubs season ticket holder and lifelong Chicagoan. Jon can be reached at jkerr1970@hotmail.com. He's got a blog, too.

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