Can the NBA Bulls Learn From LaSalle St.’s Bulls?

By: Charlie Danoff

I feel the craziness going on in the financial markets is an excellent metaphor for what is happening with the Bulls. This sub-prime mess was caused by lenders not accurately understanding the true value of the loans they were giving out. The lenders thought the thousands they loaned out today would be millions in a few years. Turned out those thousands they loaned yesterday are probably worth zero in a lot of cases today.

Similarly, heading into the year GM John Paxson thought he had a team that could contend for the Eastern crown. Turns out his team will probably miss the playoffs.

I got the inspiration for this column reading an article about one of the best GM’s in sports: Billy Beane of the Oakland Athletics. What separates Beane from the pack is his ability to get the most wins out of a limited payroll. Over most of this millennium he has competed with the Angels, Yankees and Red Sox of the world while spending millions less than them.

“I got off the plane from the winter meetings, I said to David, `Who are we kidding?’” Beane said. “We can’t let hope be our strategy here. That’s what we’re doing. … We can’t waste another year. If this needs to be done, it needs to be done …

“Our status quo as we stood going into the season was mediocrity at best. That’s my opinion. If anything we’re taking a step back with the idea we have a chance to build something very good for a long time… The cost of indecision for us probably would be a bigger mistake.”

The Bulls are in the same place as Beane’s A’s. They just do not have a roster capable of competing for a title in the current NBA. It is time to give up and rebuild. Trying to salvage a few years of making the playoffs would be a “bigger mistake.”

To understand why I think it is time for the Bulls to give up on the majority of their current roster and start over, I will take a completely subjective look at the assets of all the teams in the NBA relative to the Bulls. The time frame will be from today through the next two NBA seasons. That is to say, I will divide the NBA’s teams into three categories: better assets, same assets and worse assets. All of those categories will be relative to the Bulls. For example, the Boston Celtics are in the first category: better assets than the Bulls. That means, I think the Boston Celtics have better assets today and they will continue to have better assets until the 2010-11 season.

Any teams in the ‘better assets’ category have a superior chance of winning the NBA title than the Bulls for the defined time period. Teams with worse assets have less of chance for the title than Chicago.

OK, that probably made no sense, but here I go:

Better Assets than Chicago:

ATLANTIC
Boston - KG, Pierce, Allen and Rondo will be a top five point guard within two years.
Toronto - Bosh and Bargnani both better than any Bulls players.

CENTRAL
Detroit - Will probably win the East this year … something the Bulls were supposed to do.
Cleveland - LeBron James.

SOUTHEAST
Orlando - Dwight Howard.
Atlanta - Joe Johnson, Marvin Williams, Al Horford form a better nucleus and are already winning more.
Miami - Dwayne Wade.

NORTHWEST
Portland - They are already better than the Bulls WITHOUT the 2007 #1 overall pick.
Denver - Carmelo Anthony.
Utah - Nearly won the West last year.
Seattle - Kevan Durant.

PACIFIC
Phoenix - Could win it all this year.
LA Lakers - Kobe Bryant and Andrew Bynum = ironic Shaq and Kobe of years past.
Golden State - Playing better today and that’s without a mature Andris Biedrins or Brandin Wright.

SOUTHWEST
Dallas - 67 wins last year.
San Antonio - You know why.
New Orleans - Chris Paul.
Houston - Yao.
Memphis - There’s a reason the Bulls are rumored to be giving up a lot of their roster for Pau Gasol, and they also have Rudy Gay and Mike Conley.

Same Level of Assets:

ATLANTIC
Philadelphia

CENTRAL
Indiana
Milwaukee

SOUTHEAST
Washington
Charlotte

PACIFIC
Sacramento
LA Clippers

Worse Assets

ATLANTIC
New Jersey
New York

NORTHWEST
Minnesota

I acknowledge my prior categorization was highly subjective, extremely difficult to prove and very easy to argue with. Nevertheless, I feel the categories are fair overall and at the end of the day, most fans would have to agree the Bulls rank at BEST in the middle of the pack.

There are enough better teams in the East by any standard, and I would almost trade the Bulls roster for any Western team, save Minnesota. That may be going a little too far, but not far too far.

For a slightly less subjective way to compare what the Bulls have, I borrowed a financial statistic used to evaluate stocks: ROA. Return on Assets measures “how efficient management is at using its assets to generate earnings.” The math can is:

ROA = (Net Income) / (Total Assets)

This number essentially tells you what money a company generates from their company. For the purposes of the NBA, I have slightly altered the stat. The acronym will remain the same, but the math is slightly different:

ROA = (Wins) / (Payroll)

This number will tell fans how many wins a team gets for the money they invest in their players. While no one statistic is good enough to completely explain anything, I feel this number is a quick and dirty way to get a good idea of what NBA teams get for the money they pay. Below is a list of every team in the NBA’s ROA.

As a quick note, the NBA’s luxury tax this season is set at: 67.85 million.

Team Wins Payroll
(in millions)		 ROA* Rank
Detroit 27 65 42% 1
Orlando 23 58 40% 2
Boston 29 74 39% 3
New Orleans 23 63 37% 4
Phoenix 25 71 35% 5
Utah 20 59 34% 6
LA Lakers 23 68 34% 7
San Antonio 23 69 33% 8
Golden St. 20 65 31% 9
Portland 22 73 30% 10
Atlanta 16 54 30% 11
Toronto 18 62 29% 12
Denver 21 79 27% 13
New Jersey 18 68 26% 14
Houston 19 73 26% 15
Dallas 24 93 26% 16
Washington 17 67 25% 17
Charlotte 13 52 25% 18
Indiana 16 66 24% 19
Milwaukee 15 62 24% 20
Cleveland 18 76 24% 21
Sacramento 14 63 22% 22
Chicago 13 63 21% 23
Philadelphia 14 71 20% 24
Memphis 10 55 18% 25
LA Clippers 10 64 16% 26
Seattle 9 63 14% 27
Miami 8 72 11% 28
New York 9 88 10% 29
Minnesota 5 68 7% 30

Even if you do feel the Bulls have underachieved this season (which I do, certainly) this is still an extremely discouraging stat. Despite having a payroll only $4 million away from the luxury tax, the Bulls have the 23rd-worst ROA.

For every million the Bulls spend on payroll, 22 NBA teams get more wins out of the same one million spent.

Given that they are not going to have much money to spend on free agents - especially if Paxson intends to keep the current core intact by resigning Gordon and Deng - bringing a top-level star in with a new contract simply will not happen. Furthermore, since the Bulls are just good enough to stay in the playoff hunt and maybe get the 6-8 seed or finish a few games out, they will not get a game-changing draft pick in the foreseeable future.

Basically, unless trades are made, the roster you see today is the roster you will see in the future.

While it pains me to say this … I’m sorry Mr. Reinsdorf, but that simply will not cut it.

Trades need to be made, and NOW. The longer the Bulls’ current parts stay together, the worse it will become. Jim Boylan is not the answer. A puppet coach controlled by GM John Paxson is not the answer. It is beyond the time where fans can acceptably sit back and wait for Hinrich and Wallace to “get better.”

So, what’s to do? Trade everyone, save: Luol Deng, Tyrus Thomas and Joakim Noah. Aaron Gray and Duhon can stay, because they barely make anything and are worth more than their salaries. Gordon could stay, though he is less of a priority than the first three.

Everyone else? Dump ‘em. Move them right now. Maybe a Ben Wallace trade to the LA Lakers for Kwame Brown’s expiring contract? How about Hinrich to the Heat for Jason Williams and Ricky Davis? Both of their deals come off the cap next year.

I realize moving players Paxson has put so much faith and effort into will be difficult. The hardest thing for anyone to do is admit they have made the wrong choices in the past, and realize it is time to cut their losses and move in a different direction.

The only thing harder is continuing down that wrong path.

The Bulls still have the quality to get a lot of high draft picks and talent back in trades. Combine that with the cap room they could acquire to use wisely on free agents, and within two or three years the Bulls could have a young championship contender in the works.

Ultimately, I think the best thing you can do when building a team is wait to start spending money until you have that one star: the Shaquille O’Neal, Michael Jordan, Tim Duncan-type player. Once you have that, building the rest of the team is not so hard.

Luol Deng is not and never will be that guy. He could one day become a Scottie Pippen or Dennis Rodman type - the second- or third-best player on a championship team. Becoming a Finals-winning MVP is just not in the cards for Luol.

Until you get a player like that, however, it’s important to stay flexible enough that acquiring that player is possible. That means having high draft picks and lots of cap room. The Bulls needed to be moving that direction yesterday.

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Charlie is an aspiring writer and a caddy at Skokie Country Club. Odds are you will hear a lot about him in the years to come, so if you want to be the first kid on the block familiar with his work, click here.

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  1. [...] to notice a trend in CSR’s stories, as for the next month or so we will implore the Bulls to begin making trades. After all, the firing of Scott Skiles was essentially the waving of a white flag, right? So, [...]

    Pingback by Bulls Season In Review - Part 3 | NationalSportsReview.com on April 20, 2008

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