The Losing Fallacy
By now, you most likely have had your fill of red and green decorations, pine trees in living rooms and obnoxious holiday music on the radio. And if you can eat another home baked cookie, then you possess an iron composition that many people do not. The best thing about Christmas being over is the end to the silly and fattening traditions of the holiday that - once passed - can be packed away in the attic with your fifth grade construction paper ornament.A second tradition is now settled in full season for football fans, and I am not speaking of preparing for the “twelve days of bowl season.” Rather, the inane tradition of wishing that your playoff-less hometown NFL team will tank its remaining games in order to garner better draft position.
Raise your hand if you are among the fellows or lasses who, at some point in the last two weeks, have stated that the Bears would be better off losing in order to have a top ten pick… You should be spanked and sent to a football-free corner, but it’s hard to blame you when many - if not all - of Chicago’s best sports writers are calling for the same thing. This is madness: wishing for the Bears to cash in the season for a high draft pick is akin to making a New Year’s resolution to smoke, eat too much and burn down the local gym.
With one game left, the Bears could win and end up with as low as the 18th pick in the draft; a loss would place them as high as 10th. That’s the ideal range to be in, but if the Bears are lucky and smart, they will win this drudgery of a game against the Saints and end up with one of those juicier, late-middle picks.
Those of you who are unconvinced are now screaming at this article that the Bears could have the next Adrian Peterson, or a Vince Young, or even a Braylon Edwards. True, game-changing, season-saving, dynasty-building players are available in picks 1-10 with higher percentages than anywhere else in the draft. Especially at running back, the odds of picking up an explosive player are high.
For a football franchise that is stink-tastic like the Jets, or decimated by player/management drama like the Falcons, or just a complete mess like the Dolphins, this is exactly what is needed. The big reason for their faults is that they have few playmakers, and a critical lack of franchise players who can make a season seem worthwhile, or lay the foundation upon which to build a dynasty. The Bears, despite the illusion created by an awful season in 2007, are loaded with exceptional playmakers and potential franchise players.
Most of them are on defense, but the short list is: Brian Urlacher, Charles Tillman, Tommie Harris, Devin Hester and Olin Kreutz. Greg Olsen was the second steal of the 2007 draft (behind Adrian Peterson) and looks like he is ready to take a huge step next year with good coaching; Nathan Vasher, Adewale Ogunleye and Alex Brown have rightly been named to the Pro Bowl in recent years as starters or alternates, and at their best are exceptional playmakers.
What the Bears lack is the stud QB and workhorse running back who - in tandem - would electrify Chicago and make the defense insurmountable. And while you could find one of these in the first ten picks of the draft, the risks and costs of drafting a top-ten pick matches the needs of the Bears as well as the size “small” sweater your aunt knitted for you this Christmas.
First of all, a top ten pick brings with him an incredible salary requirement. With top ten picks making pro-bowler money before they even take one snap in the NFL, the commitment is immense. Consider the Cedric Benson quandary, which over the last three years has dominated all discussion of the Bears’ backfield: his salary demanded that the Bears give him a shot, even though his performance to date was not worthy of said opportunity. His salary made trading Thomas Jones seem like a good monetary deal for the Bears at the time - getting value out of a free agent that would leave in a year when the Bears couldn’t afford to win him back, having already committed oodles of dollars to Benson. And the money also forced Lovie Smith and Ron Turner to put Cedric on the field, since a player of that salary range demands a certain amount of usage to validate the expenditure.
Considering the financial needs of the Bears, a high draft pick would be extremely costly for two reasons. First, there’s the value of keeping current players signed. While the Bears could certainly afford a top-ten draftee, they would then most likely be unable to sign one of their current all-star players - such as Tommie Harris or Devin “Mr. Ridiculous” Hester, both of whom will be free agents in the coming years - to a long-term contract. Added to that, they may not be able to keep mid-level difference makers who benefit the team in numerous ways - the Robbie Goulds, Adrian Petersons, Hunter Hillenmeyers, and Desmond Clarks of the world. And there is still the chance that with Rex Grossman’s value depleted like a 1930’s stock price, they could afford to bring back Lance Briggs - that is, if they don’t have to set aside money for a high draft pick.
The other direction a high draft pick will cost the Bears is in acquiring new players in the off-season. The extra five to seven million dollars a number ten draftee would cost (as opposed to a number 16 or 17 first-round player) could translate into anywhere from one to four extra free agents the Bears would be unable to sign, or be the shortcoming in a big offer to a major free agent QB or running back. Look to New England for evidence of how important quality free agents can be to a team that already possesses playmakers (though the Bears obviously have no Tom Brady).
Financially, it’s a losing proposition to throw money at a high draft pick when there is so much that will be lost by bringing this unknown rookie onto the Bears. You might argue that the Bears would have the same financial commitment if they drafted a QB with the number ten pick versus signing one in free agency, but with the Bears’ history of drafting first-round quarterbacks (or any first-round talent, for that matter) and the chance of finding Hall of Fame QB’s in later rounds (Joe Montana, Tom Brady, etc.) the Bears are better off drafting several offensive linemen early, signing a running back in free agency and drafting a low-round QB to compete with the current mess.
There is another fallacy in wishing your team will flunk its final games in order to improve draft position: the culture of losing. If you don’t understand how losing can permeate a locker room faster than mold in a wet basement, just look to the Arizona Cardinals and the New Orleans Saints. These teams have been unable to shake off the cold, grey hand of bad luck that seems to follow them everywhere they go.
Intentionally losing invites this mist of awfulness into the locker room, where it sticks to everything and everyone for years. It takes luck and an excellent coach to break out of such doldrums, a combination that can take decades to hit upon - as it did recently with the Cincinnati Bengals or Indianapolis Colts. Or worse, look at how six straight years of top ten picks has done nothing for the bumbling Detroit Lions, a situation where another six years of top ten picks would probably do nothing to erase the losing culture that reeks out of Ford Field.
Now, if you’re still hell-bent on wishing for a top-ten pick for the Bears in the misguided belief that the front office would make the right pick, then go ahead: there is a lot of proof in the Favres and Mannings of the world that an excellent QB can save even a lousy team, and Minnesota’s Adrian Peterson has clearly shown that a great running back can turn a team around. That said, the Bears already have an identity and a core as a defensive juggernaut. They are loaded; and while a great QB is the best way to stay consistently productive, a great defense is still a close second. These Bears are more likely to bring themselves back to respectability without the financial drain of a gamble on a high draft pick.
Let go of the silly idea that the Bears should lose on purpose. And if you can’t let go of Christmas either, do us all one favor: stop humming those silly songs, please. They give us normal people a headache.
Share This Article
No Comments
No comments yet.
Comment On This Article
From The Gallery
Click image for more...
Website Poll
Poker sites for US players are somewhat hard to come by these days. Aside from the big ones, PokerStars and Full Tilt, mainly smaller, fairly unknown sites are available to Americans. It s a good idea to read a poker room review before you sign up with a site you don t know very much about.
