Is That A Mask? Or Is He Really A Superstar?

By: Charlie Danoff

Friday night against the Knicks, 22-year-old Bulls resident hopeful superstar Luol Deng shined, torching NY for 29 points and outrebounding Eddy Curry by 7 for a double-double. Heading into the 2004 NBA Draft, critics told us that Deng lacked athleticism and would never be a top-level talent, allowing him to slip to the Bulls at #7. Deng has since embarrassed the doubters, and now sits as the Bulls best chance to be an All-Star, and only chance to become an All-NBA first-teamer (though this is not particularly likely). Unless he accomplishes the prior and at least is considered for the latter, this Bulls squad has no prayer of ever winning the East.

The perception of Deng is that he is currently the best player on the Chicago Bulls. As opposed to rosters designed with stars and filler - like the Kobe and Shaq Lakers, or the Iverson 76ers - Deng is the best player on a “team” of good players. In some ways it’s similar to how Rasheed Wallace is the most talented Piston - Deng is not on that level as a player, but both often defer to the other members of a deep basketball team.

Deng is a long, athletic 3, who can knock down a jumper or dunk on you. His physical size and prowess also help on the defensive end, where he can handle guarding a LeBron James-esque player without embarrassing himself. Coming from Duke, he’s also perceived as smart, with a high basketball IQ. He works hard in the offseason and in the weight room, and his on-court effort has never been questioned.

But are these views of the Bulls’ young star accurate? Do the stats over the course of his career support the perceptions of his ability? While stats are seriously limited in the scope of what conclusions can be drawn from them, the numbers are a valuable tool for qualifying past performance. They cannot be solely relied on for an accurate analysis, but combined with an educated viewing of the games, they allow for a deeper understanding if used appropriately.

A number of indexes give us a point of reference by comparing Deng to statistically similar players. I will use the Similarity Scores from Database Basketball, and John Hollinger’s slightly different version. The Database Basketball figure is a career-so-far number, while Hollinger’s is a “Most Similar at Age” number (according to Hollinger - “Most Similar at Age is the player who was the most similar to this one at the same age using my Similarity Scores formula. Similarity Scores compare players on several statistical and physical criteria to find the best comparisons from the recent past.”)

Three of the players from Database Basketball’s similarity list are Michael Dickerson, Josh Childress (taken one pick ahead of Deng by the Hawks in 2004) and Josh Howard. Hollinger’s “Most Similar at Age” is Ricky Davis.

Not exactly a who’s who of First-Team All-NBA-type players. Ricky Davis? Is that the kind of guy championship teams are built around? I think not.

For fans who do not remember Dickerson, he played at Arizona with Mike Bibby, and had a solid NBA career before chronic injury problems forced him to retire prematurely (at age 27).

Based on the list, Deng is an above-average wing scorer who contributes to the team with his all-around game as well. Obviously Bulls fans hope that the most apt comparison is Howard, as that would mean Deng has an All-Star future. But Howard also has the lowest similarity score - 951, relative to Childress’ 953, and Dickerson’s 962.

Per-Game Averages For First Three NBA Seasons
Name Games/Yr PPG FG % 3P % RPG APG STL BLK
Dickerson 67 15.13 43.9 40.5 2.80 2.57 1.01 0.41
Childress 70 11.03 50.9 35.4 5.80 2.00 1.04 0.53
Howard 67 12.27 45.9 34.3 6.07 1.57 1.25 0.64
Deng 73 14.93 47.1 26.2 6.33 2.20 0.98 0.57

Looking at the numbers, the first interesting thing to note is that all three guys listed as similar to Deng had trouble staying on the court over their first few seasons. None averaged more than 70 games per year. If you want to be a great player, a prerequisite is actually playing in most of your team’s games.

That aside, Deng scores better than everyone expect Dickerson, with a shooting percentage better than all save Childress. Deng is not really a 3-point shooter (in 82 games last year he only attempted seven) so his lower 3-point percentage is not overly disconcerting. It could be a nice additional tool in his arsenal, but he is probably better off focusing on short jumpers and getting to the hoop for his points.

While scoring is not the only aspect of winning basketball games, the great ones usually score a lot; in addition to contributing in other ways. Looking to those categories, Deng is the best rebounder of the group, while his assists, steals and blocks are all more or less the same as the others.

Keeping all of this in mind, let’s examine how Deng compares to Ricky Davis at the same age. Unfortunately, Davis only played 7 out of 82 games at age 21, so I will use his breakout year (age 23, with the Cleveland Cavaliers). I think most Bulls fans would agree that last year represented somewhat of a breakout season for Deng. This will not be a pure comparison, but I feel it is more valid than comparing Davis at 21 or 22, where he played less than 2000 minutes.

Most Similar in Breakout Seasons
Name G PPG FG % 3P % RPG APG STL BLK
Davis 79 20.6 41.0 36.3 4.9 5.5 1.58 0.45
Deng 82 18.8 51.7 14.3 7.1 2.5 1.2 0.59

Davis scores more points, but he does it much less efficiently than Deng, shooting more than 10% worse from the field and taking lots of threes despite only sinking 36% of them. Deng is by far the better rebounder, but Davis had a surprisingly high assist average, more than double Luol’s output.

Taking all the player comparisons into account, I would say Deng compares quite well to the entire group. It would not be a stretch to conclude from these results than Deng’s early career was the best the five players. The closest competitor would be Howard; but this is good news, as Howard is the only All-Star and the only one of the bunch to play in the NBA Finals. Furthermore, consider that Howard was 25 in his third year, while Deng was only 21.

With Deng’s peer group established, certain aspects of his overall game beg further statistical analysis. Using Dean Oliver’s “Approximate Value” formula and John Hollinger’s Player Efficiency Rating, we can investigate Deng’s effectiveness at a deeper level. These numbers are not perfect, but they are currently the best versions of a single number to indicate the value of a player.

Over the first three years, Deng’s average AV has been 9.45 - indicating an “average regular or a good sixth man.” His average PER has been 16.29, which usually equates to a “third Banana” on a top-flight team. Obviously, those numbers are relatively disappointing. But they may not be appropriate, given how much better Deng played last season than in his first two years.

At age 21, Deng’s AV was 12.3, putting him in the “All-Star Candidate” category, while his PER of 18.8 made him a “Solid Second Option.” That’s more like it - still not superstar numbers, but Deng has not played like a superstar to this point in his career, so that’s not surprising. These ratings hint that Deng has not yet reached his potential, but at least they suggest that becoming a perennial All-Star is not out of the question.

A type of greatness that Bulls fans might realistically hope for Deng to achieve is something like that of Willis Reed - a great player who elevated his game in the playoffs and took his team to a title. Deng has shown one definite sign of a great player in that realm already, playing his best basketball in the playoffs. In last spring’s postseason dance, Deng improve on his seasonal averages in five statistical categories.

All of this is possible for Deng, but contrary to what some draftniks might tell you, what matters in sports is not your potential, but what you do.

Right now, Luol is not performing at this level; and his biggest flaw is an unwillingness to seize control of the team. It seems that he wants to be everybody’s buddy - unfortunately, as a leader it is far more important to have respect than friendship.

If Hinrich, Gordon and the rest respected Deng more, they would pass him the ball religiously and Deng would be taking more than 16% of the Bulls’ shots. Deng needs to separate himself on the court, take more responsibility on his shoulders, and tell Hinrich (impolitely) to feed him on every possession… or he will kick his lily-white you-know-what.

You’re not just part of the wolf pack, Luol - you’re the alpha. Act like it.

Or perhaps he won’t, and that’s fine. It doesn’t mean he won’t be a good player. It just means he’s not the leader the Bulls need.

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Charlie is an aspiring writer and a caddy at Skokie Country Club. Odds are you will hear a lot about him in the years to come, so if you want to be the first kid on the block familiar with his work, click here.

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  1. [...] Knicks 12/14 and putting up 26 points and 7 rebounds in the Lakers’ loss. Charlie decides to look at the numbers and decide just how good Deng is: Using Dean Oliver’s “Approximate Value” formula and John [...]

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