No Bull - Time for Change is Now
It was not too long ago that the Bulls were predicted by many experts to win the East. That now seems a distant memory, given the 1-5 start. Rookie Joakim Noah voiced his displeasure, saying “Teams are getting anything they want on us.” He was later supported by local wiseman Jay Mariotti for him comments.
Memo to Noah: I know you’re new in Chicago, but any time Jay Mariotti supports you, it means you are in the wrong. SHUT UP, ROOK. If you’ve got something negative to say, say it to Ben Wallace’s face; don’t whine behind your team’s back to a reporter. Speaking of Wallace - personally, I think all of this year’s problems are due to the fact the team let him rise above everyone else’s rules to wear his headband.
I may be wrong about the headband theory. If so, despite what anyone else wants to write about the Bulls problems this year, the main reason they are 1-5 is because they cannot make shots. For every shot taken, the Bulls connect less often than any other team in the NBA this year (ranking last in Points Per Shot). Looking at it from another angle, they score only 95.0 points per 100 offensive possessions. While that may not sound too bad, it ranks them second-to-last in offensive efficiency. By comparison, the Raptors score 108 points, and the Celtics a deadly 117.
Ben Gordon and Kirk Hinrich - supposedly the jump shooting leaders - are both shooting under 36%. Last season both shot above 44%. Other encouraging starts come from Chris Duhon (37.1%) and Thabo Sefolosha (at a putrid 21.4%). Personally, after his Toronto performance, I think Thabo should be banned from shooting jumpers in live action; but that’s just me. He took the most shots on the team, 15, and made only 4.
No matter how good a team you are, you will not win shooting this way.
Credit always goes first to the leaders of an organization. They get the high fives when things go well, but when crap hits the fan the get the brunt - just ask Jeff Skilling.
Ben Wallace has been a shell of himself. Coming in, fans knew the guy was not going to score - even in his All-Star years, he never averaged 10 points per game. What everyone expected was defense, rebounding, and always hustle.
Through six games this year, he definitely still can’t score (3.5 pts/game, atrocious 32.1% shooting). The problem is that he is also not rebounding or defending. Wallace’s rebounding is the lowest it’s been since his rookie year, and his +/- for six games has been an average of -6.67 per contest. His hustle also should come into question, as at times this year he has looked simply disinterested on the floor.
There have been rumors of a lingering ankle injury, but that is not a sufficient excuse. If this bad play is due to injury, then the team is better off having him sit out a few games; if not, perhaps he needs to be benched. Frankly, he is embarrassing himself and the organization, considering this is costing Jerry Reinsdorf and the Bulls $15.5 million this year.
Also blameworthy is Head Coach Scott Skiles. Maybe he has taken these guys as far as he can - his hard-nosed, intense style worked when he came in, midway through the ‘03-’04 season. He took these kids farther than anyone thought he could, with three straight playoff appearances.
But he is no longer coaching kids. Hinrich is entering his fifth year, while Gordon and Deng have already spent three full years in the league. On top of that, they are getting paid like men - Hinrich makes $11 million this year, and Gordon and Deng each turned down $50 million-plus extensions.
I think the team as a whole is going through an identity crisis. Hinrich, Gordon and Deng are not doing well playing with expectations. It is one thing to perform when nobody expects anything of you, but it’s harder when opponents respect you and gear up for every game. The Bulls trio of young stars needs to start maturing quickly.
Beyond just those three, others are moving into unexplored personal territory. Wallace is adjusting to his diminished skills, Thomas is figuring out who he can become, Joe Smith is still getting to know his new team and Noah is in the NBA for the first time. It is Skiles’ job to mesh all these individual parts into a cohesive whole, and so far he has been totally unsuccessful.
“Why do we look so strange? Why don’t we even look like ourselves?” Skiles asked Chicago reporters after the winless start. I don’t know either, Scott - but you are paid good money to figure it out.
I break coaches up into two categories: A-B and B-C. Most successful coaches are one or the other, and failures never make it to the next letter. A-B coaches are the Rick Carlisles (Pistons), Doug Collins’s (Bulls) and Del Harris’s (Lakers) of the world - good coaches who built raw young squads into above-average playoff teams.
The problem with A-B coaches is that they do not win championships. B-C coaches like Larry Brown and Phil Jackson take over their teams and lead them to the promised land. Even good coaches can only carry their teams so far; sometimes players just need someone new to take them to that next level.
Skiles still could prove me wrong, but I see him as an A-B coach. Nevertheless, he is not leaving the Bulls for at least this year, and in the meantime his team should still make the playoffs.
Maybe a change in the starting five is in order, as another part of the team that might have been stretched to its limits is the diminutive starting backcourt. The pair of 6′3″ guards - Hinrich and Gordon - is one of the shortest in the league, and that’s if you believe Gordon is actually that tall (in reality, he’s closer to 6-feet even). Every game the Bulls start at a huge defensive disadvantage, and it continues when they go to the bench, bringing in the 6-1 Duhon.
Hinrich is forced to guard taller shooting guards, wasting energy that could be used running the team or hitting jumpers. It could also be contributing to him being third in the league in fouls per game. At least Hinrich is a strong defender, though; because Ben Gordon is not, and he consistently gets burned by the opposing team’s point guards.
I think it is high time for Ben Gordon to take a trip back to the bench, and reprise the role that won him the Sixth Man of the Year award in his ‘04-’05 rookie season. If it’s a good enough role for Manu Ginboli on a championship team, and Celtics Hall-of-Famers Frank Ramsey, Sam Jones and John Havlicek, it’s good enough for Gordon.
It will not be an insult to Ben to take him out of the starting five - it will be for the sake of the team. As a reserve, he can come in against tired players or second-teamers, against whom his defensive weaknesses will be less of a factor. He can spend all his energy scoring, saving himself for late in games when he’s needed to close.
Furthermore, it will allow Hinrich to guard players his own size, not waste fouls, and spend more of his energy running the team. He needs to be on the floor most of the game for the Bulls to do well, and his frequent foul trouble has made that impossible. Also, the first guard off the bench would be Gordon, and he could even come in to relieve Hinrich at the point, limiting his time as a bad defensive two-guard.
Luol Deng can move up from the three spot to start next to Hinrich in the backcourt. This will turn a defensive weakness into a strength, as Deng has more than enough athleticism to cover the league’s starting two guards. Against quicker opponents, his 6′9″ length will make up the difference.
In the frontcourt, it is time for Wallace to sit down. Either take a few weeks off to heal the ankle, or get out of the starting five so someone with enthusiasm can play. With his defense well below his own standards, Wallace’s lack of inside scoring ability is killer. Having all your points come from jumpers is a huge disadvantage, because it allows defenses to focus on that aspect. Since Wallace is not going to score, if he can’t make a huge defensive impact he is too much of a liability to start.
Who replaces him, you ask? As others have suggested, Aaron Gray is a good option. Despite Joe Smith’s hot start, Gray is the best pure post player on the team and the only true center. At Pitt he shot over 52% each year, which would be a godsend to this team. While he may be somewhat of a defensive liability, he proved he could rebound in the preseason and will only get better on that end of the court.
To make up for him defensively, Joakim Noah can start at the four. His comments may have been stupid, but looking at per-48-minute stats, Noah is the team leader in blocks, rebounds and steals. He is unquestionably hustling and playing with energy, and could give the starters a spark that is sorely lacking.
Now, perhaps you’re asking “What about the SF position?” Or, “How about Tyrus Thomas?” Why, dear reader, you just answered your own question.
After the Detroit game (the Bulls’ only win) Rasheed Wallace called Tyrus “more of a [small forward] playing [power forward],” and overall I agree with ‘Sheed. Long-term, with more bulk, Tyrus could be a four; but right now he is more physically suited to the three. So that leaves the Bulls with this depth chart:
PG - Hinrich, Duhon
SG - Deng, Gordon, Sefolosha
SF - Thomas, Nocioni, Khryapa
PF - Noah, Smith
C - Gray, Wallace
The starting five still has two of the top three jump shooters in Deng and Hinrich, and finally some complimentary inside scoring from Gray. Even if Gray is only marginally effective, that will really open things up for the backcourt. On the fast break, Thomas and Noah will be amongst the fastest in the league at their respective positions, and should be able to finish what Hinrich serves them.
Defensively, Hinrich, Thomas and Noah (maybe not yet, but soon) are all top-notch defenders. Two-guards will have a tough time dealing with Deng’s length, and Gray’s shortcomings will be made up for by the Thomas and Noah block party.
The second unit would be amongst the NBA’s best, and could be used liberally - exploiting good matchups whenever possible. It would give Skiles quite a tool chest to play with, and the ability to adjust more easily to his opponents.
Overall, it is not time to worry… yet. Skiles’ Bulls teams have started slow before and made the playoffs. In 2004-’05 they got off to a roaring 0-9, while last year they started 3-9. I know changing the starting lineup might just be putting a band-aid over a bullet hole for some teams, but I really think it could make a difference for the Bulls. They are just at too much of a disadvantage defensively with their current unit.
Finally, the biggest key for this year’s team is Luol Deng evolving into the superstar that so many people think he will become. He needs to stop being such a team-first guy and passing off shots to Duhon and Sefolosha. Deng should be demanding the ball and taking control. If he does, the Bulls could win the East. If he does not, it may be a struggle to make the playoffs.
Tags: Ben Gordon, Ben Wallace, Chicago Bulls, Chris Duhon, Jay Mariotti, Joakim Noah, Kirk Hinrich, Scott Skiles, Thabo Sefolosha
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