Counting Chickens in Cubdom

By: Glenn Anderson

It appears that nothing can go wrong for this Cubs team right now. Jason Marquis exited after less than three innings on Friday, after giving up seven runs, and what happens? The bullpen gives up only a solo homer in the ninth, and Aramis Ramirez hits two three-run bombs as part of a 13-run effort.Saturday starts off with the Cubs up a game and a half on the Brewers in the NL Central division race. While the boys in blue continued their home run clinic against the Pirates on the North Side, down in Atlanta the Brewers scored a top-of-the-ninth run to send the game into extra innings. In the top of the tenth, they score another - only to be thwarted by a Cub-friendly Braves team in the bottom of the frame, extending the Cubs’ lead to two and a half games.

Sunday - in what could prove to be the nail in the coffin - the Cubs hammered the Pirates 8-0, completing the sweep, while the Brewers surrendered a 4-1 lead at the hands of a four-run inning for Atlanta, and ultimately fell 7-4.

The Cubs now lead the division by three and a half games; and by the time they travel to Florida on Tuesday, the lead might be four. The Cubs’ momentum is swinging like a wrecking ball, careening towards the dilapidated structure that was once the Brewers playoffs aspirations. In fact, the Cubs are now boasting three wrecking balls - actually, they could be likened to sticks of dynamite, liable to ignite at any moment.

The fuse on Aramis Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano, and Derek Lee was lit at the start of the season, but it apparently took five months for the flame to reach the explosive stuff. In the month of September, the Cubs have 38 home runs, 25 of which have come off the bats of their three stud hitters. That formidable triumvirate has not been without a supporting cast in this playoff-bound campaign, as Cliff Floyd has chipped in with four homers of his own and a .381 on-base percentage, while break-through phenom Geovany Soto has three homers and a .698 slugging percentage this month.

It looks as though the chances of the Cubs not making the playoffs at this point are about as likely as Mark DeRosa and Lou Piniella both coming to the ballpark clean-shaven on the same day, so perhaps it’s time to start thinking about what will happen for the Cubs once October rolls around - and it starts with roster cuts.

Piniella and Jim Hendry will have to cut their roster back down to the standard 25 spots for the playoffs. While theoretically you’d be tempted to cut back to the original roster, it’s not quite that simple for the Cubs. Their roster wasn’t exactly picture perfect at the end of August, and since then at least a couple players have made a case to be considered for the playoff roster.

First on that list is catcher Geovany Soto. Soto was the sixth Cubs catcher to squat behind the plate this season (after Michael Barret, Rob Bowen, Henry Blanco, Koyie Hill, and Jason Kendall), and in limited plate appearances is hands-down the best offensive weapon of any of them. He doesn’t have the experience of Kendall, nor the defensive savvy of Blanco, but in the playoffs you need run producers. While few successful playoff teams have bad pitching, there have been even fewer who struggle to put runs on the board. Besides, his defense and ability to handle the Cubs staff have actually shown to be improvements over his predecessors. Final roster spots will likely go to Kendall and Soto - Blanco will become a spectator after September 30th.

Who would you rather have as a spot starter and long reliever for the playoffs?
  Sean Marshall
  Steve Trachsel
 
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Second is the starting pitching. The rotation is set with Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, Jason Marquis and Rich Hill, but the Cubs brass will likely keep a spot starter around for the playoffs. That leaves Steve Trachsel or Sean Marshall, and there’s little chance they’ll go with Marshall. Despite his poor performance since coming to the Cubs from Baltimore a month ago, Hendry brought Trachsel over for playoff experience, and that’s exactly what he’ll supply.

This is hardly fair to Marshall, who people seem quick to dismiss as the obvious fifth starter. Those are the same people who forget that Marshall is a fully capable two or three starter on many other teams, and are also ignorant of Marshall’s value as a potential long-man out of the bullpen, a role Trachsel will not be asked to fill and has essentially refused to consider. I will be skeptical of the decision to keep the poor man’s Greg Maddux around over the poor man’s Noah Lowry, but I think Trachsel gets the playoff spot and Marshall joins Blanco in the stands.

The infield is pretty set with Ramirez, Ryan Theriot, DeRosa and Lee as the starters. Mike Fontenot will most likely be kept on, as he’s the only true backup infielder the Cubs have, and can play both shortstop and second. While he hasn’t been getting many at-bats lately, Piniella does like to have him come off the bench in pinch-running situations late in the game, or to face a right-handed relief pitcher.

Ronny Cede’o is an acceptable backup at shortstop or second base, but despite his heroics on Sunday while filling in for Theriot, his unreliability at the plate is a major drawback. Daryle Ward is a capable first baseman and among the best pinch hitters in the business - his experience is invaluable, as is his ability to play right field in addition to first base. Given DeRosa’s defensive versatility, Ward and Fontenot should be able to fill in as long as more than two infielders don’t go down. The spots go to Ramirez, Theriot, DeRosa, Lee, Ward and Fontenot.

In the outfield, there are a plethora of capable players. Soriano, Jacque Jones and Cliff Floyd are the everyday starters, and rightfully so. But there are others in the mix - Matt Murton’s approach at the plate has improved tremendously since being brought back up from his mid-summer minor league stint, and he’s getting results. His glove has gotten considerably better since last year, and he looks much more comfortable in right field than in left.

Felix Pie has come on in center field late in games for added defense and speed on the bases, moving Jones to right and giving the veteran Floyd some much-needed rest. Craig Monroe is essentially a right-handed Jacque Jones - he can only hit lefties and is no Gold Glover in the outfield, but he brings playoff experience from the Tigers last season and can pack some power.

In September call-ups, one of the previously hidden treasures has been Sam Fuld. Like Pie, Fuld has been used primarily in late innings for pinch-running and defense, but he’s turned about as many heads as one can with only two plate appearances, but likely not enough to find a spot on the playoff roster. When all is said and done, I think Piniella goes with speed and experience, and will keep Soriano, Jones, Floyd, Pie, Murton and Monroe as his outfielders.

That leaves seven bullpen spots open. First, the locks: you can essentially put a goose egg in the runs column for any inning Carlos Marmol appears in, and since the All-Star break Scott Eyre has been the same way, making him the only reliable southpaw pitcher in the pen. Ryan Dempster and Bob Howry have done a great job in the back half of the season in tying down innings eight and nine, and Kerry Wood could easily be given similar praise for the seventh and eighth.

Then there’s Michael Wuertz, who is dazzling when he’s brought into a jam mid-inning, but has struggled when given an inning of his own. Kevin Hart has done nothing but turn heads since being called up to the majors, posting a 0.93 ERA in 9.2 major league innings, and the rest of his line is just as impressive. He may be inexperienced, but all season long Piniella has gone with who’s hot, regardless of experience. I don’t think it will be any different when it comes to this kid.

Will Ohman could potentially offer some left-handed relief, but he hasn’t done enough to show anyone that his early-season woes are behind him. Carmen Pignatiello could offer the same relief, but hasn’t been up long enough to prove much of anything. The final seven spots likely go to Wood, Marmol, Eyre, Howry, Dempster, Wuertz and Hart.

Naturally, I could be wrong about all of this. For all I know, Piniella could decide that the Cubs need to carry five starting pitchers, a closer, no bullpen, four catchers, and a plethora of position players; or that putting famous bleachers fan Ronnie Woo-Woo on the roster would be invaluable to team morale. Just like everything else in baseball, we won’t know until it happens. I just hope Lou and Jim use the same logic to get to those rosters that they’ve been using throughout this month. Because whatever it is, that logic has done the team pretty darn well.

Glenn Anderson is a graduate of Chicagoland's Evanston Township High School and Pitzer College in beautiful southern California. He is a life-long, die hard Cubs fan; thankfully this has not damaged his psyche to the point where he can't intelligently comment on the team.

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