Lou Leading Last Lap

By: Glenn Anderson

If the last seven games are any indication of how the Cubs do against teams dressed in red and white, they need to cross their fingers and hope they see the Phillies in the playoffs.After going 3-1 in St. Louis and kicking off the final home stand of the season with a 2-1 series victory over the Cincinnati Reds, the Cubs once again lead by one game over the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central division race. With less than two weeks remaining in the regular season, every game counts, and the scores of the past week reflect that.

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With those seven games decided by an average of 1.57 runs, the Cubs are not only showing the guts and grit needed to get to the postseason in this year’s Major Leagues, but they are gaining experience in winning important ballgames by small margins, an invaluable quality for an October team. This Cubs team has gotten undeniably better at doing exactly that over the course of the season. While the team’s winning percentage in 1-run ballgames in the first half of the season could have been mistaken for a pitcher’s batting average, the Cubs are 13-7 in such contests since the All-Star break (6-2 in September).

Many baseball experts insist that down the stretch of a playoff race, the October seat will be awarded to the team with the more experienced coaching. That leads us to the match-up not of the Brewers vs. the Cubs, but of (Milwaukee Brewers manager) Ned Yost vs. Lou Piniella.

Yost is concluding his fifth season as a skipper in the Major Leagues, where he’s done admirably leading a tenacious Brew Crew. However in this match-up, he’s opposed by “Sweet” Lou Piniella: 17th on the all-time managerial wins list (fourth on the active list), five post-season appearances, winning his lone World Series appearance and nineteen seasons of head coaching experience entering this season. Needless to say, Yost is a bit overmatched.

This might have become apparent over the past few days, when each manager tinkered with their rotations. Tuesday, Piniella went with vivacious right-hander Carlos Zambrano on short rest, and also declared his plans to do the same with Ted Lilly the following day. To the greenhorn manager of the Crew, this appeared as an indication that it was time to pull out all the stops and sprint for the finish. Not to be outdone (or out-managed), Yost matched the move by starting the ace of his own staff, Ben Sheets.

Zambrano wasn’t dominant, and his four earned runs over five and a third innings were nothing to brag about. That being said, he didn’t pitch particularly badly. His stuff was decent, and some tough breaks and an inconsistent strike zone (that has seemed to rear its nasty head quite frequently between St. Louis and Wrigley) didn’t take as much of a toll on the scoreboard as they might have. What’s most important is he got through the game in one piece. That’s more than Yost can say about his decision that evening.

Down in Texas, Sheets exited after a 12-pitch first inning with a strained hamstring. Twenty four hours later, the second half of Sweet Lou’s plan worked like a charm, as Ted Lilly - one of several Cubs with an off-the-radar case for the team MVP award this season - threw seven beautiful innings, surrendering only two solo home runs, and striking out eight. He won’t get credit for the win, but his gem of an effort allowed the Cubs to win. What made it more significant was that at the same time, the Brewers came back in the ninth inning in Houston but dropped the contest and their share of the NL Central lead in the tenth.

Point, Piniella.

Let’s dissect this move in the managerial chess match: Piniella takes a risk. As he said following Wednesday night’s 3-2 victory, “We knew it was a little bit of a gamble, but look, you have to gamble in this business. If you don’t go against the norm at certain times, you miss out on opportunities.” If only it were as straightforward as that.

Piniella may have been gambling, but he was playing poker - not roulette. Zambrano is typically referred to as a horse, and with good reason. Reaching the conclusion of his fifth full season in the Major Leagues, he hasn’t spent one day on the disabled list, and hasn’t pitched fewer than 200 innings in any of those seasons. Heck, once I saw Zambrano throw three consecutive pitches clocked at 99, 100 and 101 MPH - in the sixth inning, after throwing 90 pitches!

The guy is about as durable as a Volvo, and probably the first pitcher in the league I would think of to start on short rest. While Ted Lilly is hardly known for his consistency and stamina (at least not yet), he’s a veteran and knows how to prepare accordingly for ballgames. He boasts the same five-season injury-free streak that Big ‘Z’ has, and comparably has thrown at least 178 innings in all but one of those seasons. Another guy who I would hardly consider a “gamble.”

Ben Sheets in no way resembles any of those attributes. While Zambrano is called a horse, Sheets (especially this season) could be easily likened to a mule. Before making two trips to the DL this season, Sheets has only averaged 137.1 innings in each of the past three seasons. His previous start, he’d allowed five earned runs in three innings to the Reds. Going with a guy like that on three days rest is a perfect example of throwing your money on a number and hoping the ball lands on it.

After considering who was getting moved up, now consider possible reasons why. In the case of Yost and Sheets, it made little to no sense. The only result of the move is that it would have allowed Sheets to start the first game of the NLDS if his team made it to the playoffs. On the other hand, the Cubs had Thurdsay and will have Monday off, allowing them to have a four-man rotation (while still pitching on regular rest) for the remainder of the season.

The only game for which the starter is not already decided is the final game in Florida. And along the way, if anyone can’t go for one reason or another, the Cubs have two qualified and capable starters waiting in the wings in Sean Marshall and Steve Trachsel, and Jason Marquis would be ready to start a one-game playoff with the Brewers (if necessary) on October 1.

That being said, while it’s more difficult to make this argument after Lilly’s heroics Wednesday night, I’m not sure why Piniella decided to make these changes to the rotation at the given time. It obviously didn’t affect Lilly too much, and Zambrano’s shaky start could have been attributed to that or anything else that’s made him periodically throw like Tim Robbins in Bull Durham over the past couple months.

My question is why did he feel he had to do it? If he felt using Trachsel in the rotation at such a high-pressure point in the season wasn’t a chance he was willing to take, why not use Sean Marshall? Marshall has thrown four innings in two outings this month, the last of which was on the 14th, and had a sub-4.00 ERA as a starter. I didn’t really understand the move of bringing in Trachsel to replace him in the rotation in the first place, especially considering that in the postseason teams usually go with a four-man rotation anyway. But as I sit here proclaiming Piniella’s coaching superiority over Ned Yost, I’m certainly not going to say my points are better.

No. Despite the close race at hand, Piniella seems like he’s got this one under control. Still calm and even-keeled, he sits in the press room after games and jokes about the remaining schedule, the weight he’s planning to lose in the offseason, and the nail-biter his team just pulled out. This isn’t his first barbecue, and the difference there between him and his counterpart is showing.

After last night’s game, Yost addressed questions about his decision to sit certain players and sounded more like a defendant pleading his case, trying to convince himself just as much as he is his accusers: “It’s very hard, but I have to go on who’s hot and who’s not… I have to do what’s best for the organization and play it day to day. Everybody on the team understands we have a chance to do something special.”

While he talks about “chances,” the Cubs skipper said he wasn’t planning on even thinking about baseball during Thursday’s off-day, which may very well be a mind game he’s decided to play with Yost. But then again, the Brewers are marching to Atlanta to face an always-formidable Braves team, and his Cubs are taking a day off before hosting the relatively docile Pirates. If I were Lou, I’d seize this opportunity to not think about baseball as well. He’s sitting in the most comfortable one game lead I’ve ever seen.

Glenn Anderson is a graduate of Chicagoland's Evanston Township High School and Pitzer College in beautiful southern California. He is a life-long, die hard Cubs fan; thankfully this has not damaged his psyche to the point where he can't intelligently comment on the team.

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