Heading Down the (Away) Stretch

By: Glenn Anderson

The Cubs spent much of the series relying on their bullpen as they took two of three from the Astros at Minute Maid Park. If only baseball games were just five innings, this past series at Houston would have been far more satisfying. Outscoring the ‘Stros 12-5 in innings one through five, but being taken 3-1 in the back four frames, the Cubs found their power early in games, but their bats remained ineffective in the later innings.All year long, the Cubs have been aggressive at the plate; low walk totals and high strikeout numbers typically allow opposing starting pitchers to go deep into games - even when the Cubs get to them early. Astros’ Thursday night starter Woody Williams was pounced on early, giving up four runs before recording an out. But after making 50 pitches in the first two innings, Williams needed just another 59 to get through the next five, thanks in large part to the lack of patience the Cubs displayed at the plate. Even in the first inning, barring the walks issued to Cliff Floyd and Ryan Theriot, and Alfonso Soriano’s line-out to center, every other hit (or out) in the inning came with the hitter either even or trailing in the count.

While recently they’ve been doing a better job being patient as a team, the aggressive approach at the plate is going to prove to be less and less acceptable, especially if they find themselves in the playoffs.

In other news from the plate, the Cubs have swapped the timely hitting they displayed in June and July for the power they’d been missing all year. Over the past week, the Cubs have averaged 1.7 home runs per game (12 homers in seven games), whereas they averaged just 0.82 in the first 139 contests. Much of that can be accredited to the big boppers in the lineup - the guys who should have been hitting dingers all year - finally stepping up to the plate. Over the past month, Soriano, Aramis Ramirez and Derek Lee have all shown marked drops in at-bats per home run (vs. the rest of the season): 10.14 vs. 24.66; 16.16 vs. 20.82; 21 vs. 31.08, respectively.

Unfortunately, the power surge has come at the cost of hitting with runners in scoring position (RISP). While the Cubs used to capitalize on clutch hitting early in the season - especially from the likes of Ramirez, Mark DeRosa, Lee, and Floyd - Tuesday night’s loss was not an unfamiliar sight of late, as the Cubs stranded sixteen baserunners over the course of the game, and failed to score a run in innings 4-11. In fact, the Cubs left 32 men on base over the course of the three-game set.

To this point in the Cubs’ season, the theme has been unpredictability. Is Zambrano going to be lights out, or is he going to implode? Is Soriano going to hit one onto Waveland, or is he going to strike out trying (and possibly hurt himself in the process)? Is Dempster going to get the save or blow it? Will they score three runs or thirteen?

Are the only teams in the division against whom the Cubs have a winning record going to be the only teams .500 or better? Yes, but we’ll get back to that.

Where will the Chicago Cubs finish this season?
  NL Central Champs
  National League Wild Card
  2nd Place in Central
  3rd Place in Central
  Totally out of the race
 
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A team in a playoff race should not still be trying to smooth out these sorts of uncertainties in mid-September. By this point in the season, teams in the hunt should be worried about injured players getting better, solidifying the starting rotation, and trying to see which minor leaguers might be able to contribute in October. But as it stands right now, the Cubs have a bullpen with only one reliable left-handed reliever (Scott Eyre), a trio of respectable pitchers (Ryan Dempster, Carlos Marmol and Bob Howry) who are collectively handling the set-up and closing duties, a catcher who’s one of seven backstops to have handled the pitching staff this season, and a manager who seems to think everything is going alright.

With a half-game lead on an equally precarious Brewers team, no one should feel at ease. The Cubs are (contrary to popular belief) not in control of their own destiny. They’re a half game up, but that’s a game the Brewers haven’t played yet. If it was the Cubs who hadn’t played that game, then they’d control their fate. As it stands right now, if the Brew Crew matches the Cubs game-for-game from here on out, then wins that last game, guess what: we’re all tied up.

From watching the series in Houston, teams will have learned the following about the Cubs: if you’re behind in the late innings, you can come back; don’t pitch their power hitters on the outer half of the plate; and don’t run on Soriano. After the pending Cardinals series, the Cubs will not face another opponent in September with a winning record. Believe it or not, that’s terrible news.

That’s right, the only two teams in the NL Central that the Cubs have had success against this season are the Brewers and Cardinals. Not only that, but the teams left on the schedule who are not vying for a playoff spot (which is all except St. Louis) will have would-be minor leaguers playing. If you think this is a good thing, think again.

How often do you see a pitcher come up to the big leagues and excel in his first two or three outings? Pretty frequently. How often do you see that success continue once there’s a scouting report on him? Not nearly as often. The Cubs will be facing those pitchers (and hitters, for that matter) about whom nobody outside the opposing organization knows much of anything. Factor in that the Cubs already haven’t played well against losing teams, and it spells disaster.

It is for this reason that I’m not nearly as optimistic about the Cubs remaining schedule this season as many others are: with a 4-1 record at Busch Stadium this season, and a deeper pitching staff and bench than the Cards, one should welcome the idea of going to St. Louis for a three-day, four-game set in the land of the Redbirds. Following that series, the Cubbies have two left against the Reds and one apiece with the Pirates and Marlins. Against those three teams, the Cubs have a combined 10-17 record so far this season.

While the Brewers have a tougher remaining schedule, 10 of their 17 remaining games are at home, where they have a 45-26 record - second best in the NL behind Arizona. The Cubs, conversely, have 10 on the road and only six left at home. While it works to their advantage that they have the best road record in the NL Central, this sportswriter is not too comfortable with a home stretch fraught with historically tough opponents in their own houses.

Glenn Anderson is a graduate of Chicagoland's Evanston Township High School and Pitzer College in beautiful southern California. He is a life-long, die hard Cubs fan; thankfully this has not damaged his psyche to the point where he can't intelligently comment on the team.

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