Shuffling the Deck

By: Glenn Anderson

Pittsburg might be the city of three rivers, but the only river that was flowing for the Cubs this weekend was called Big ‘Z’. Giving up just one run on two hits over six innings on Saturday night, Carlos Zambrano returned to his July form against the Pittsburg Pirates. That was one of the only feathers the Cubs had to stick in their caps, as Steve Trachsel and Rich Hill combined to give up 12 earned runs in eight innings of work in the games that flanked Zambrano’s gem.The good news from the mound is that aside from Kerry Wood’s three-run outing on Sunday, in which he failed to record an out, the bullpen allowed only one earned run over ten innings. From the looks of things, the consistency of the bullpen will prove to be a vital factor in the playoff future of the Cubs, considering the crap-shoot of a success rate for the starting pitching and the offense on any given day.

Other good news is that Alfonso Soriano seems to have found his power swing. Soriano homered in back-to-back games Saturday and Sunday, giving him 24 on the season. His power was complemented in the latter contest by that of rookie phenom catcher Geovany Soto, who notched his first major league home run. Soto is one of the many players from the Cubs farm system who, come the end of September, might be the difference between playing or watching October baseball.

Going three for seven at the plate and throwing out a baserunner in the series, Soto is very quickly showing why many analysts are calling him the future backstop on the North Side. More pertinently, he might be the offensive spark the Cubs have been looking for amidst the recently concluded 3-5 stretch, during which the Cubs fell to second place in the division for the first time since August 16. Don’t be surprised to see some of Jason Kendall’s starts given to the rookie down the stretch.

While that offensive spark was (on the whole) missing in Pittsburg, manager Lou Piniella might have found what he was looking for on Monday in Chicago. For only the second time this season, Piniella took his every-day number four hitter - Aramis Ramirez - and moved him back to fifth in the order, inserting Cliff Floyd between him and Derek Lee. It was only the second time Ramirez had been inserted in the five spot, but it yielded huge dividends as the Cubs rattled off 12 runs on 17 hits Monday afternoon against the St. Louis Cardinals.

That game was particularly interesting because while it was a make-up game for the August 19 game that was rained out at Wrigley Field, it was an exact re-match of the game that took place on August 20: Ted Lilly vs. Joel Pineiro. The first time around Lilly gave up five runs on seven hits over six innings. Pineiro on the other hand, got the win - going five innings, giving up three runs on seven hits.

It was quite a different story three weeks later, as Lilly (15-7) gave up three runs on five hits over seven innings, while Pineiro (5-4) gave up six runs on eight hits over just three and a third.

Other than So Taguchi replacing Edwin Encarnacion, the Cardinals lineup held the exact same players between the two games, and in more or less the same order. It seems as though Ted Lilly got a good enough look at the Cards the first time around: with Taguchi providing two of the three runs this most recent outing with a two-run homer, Lilly limited the rest of the lineup to one run. It also seems the Cubs hitters got a good look at Pineiro the first time around; but then again, it was a different-looking lineup than that first day. Derek Lee (3), Mark DeRosa (6), Jason Kendall (8), and Ted Lilly (9) were the only people who held the same spots in the order. Ryan Theriot and Jacque Jones were also in the lineup but moved around a bit in the absence of Soriano.

Ramirez was also in the lineup that day, but batting fourth. On the tenth of September, Piniella hit him fifth, and not only did the Cubs dump more runs than they scored in the entire Pittsburg series on the Cards, but Ramirez was 4-for-5 with two doubles and two home runs, for a 2.400 slugging percentage on the day. Not bad.

Separating Lee and Ramirez with Cliff Floyd was a very smart move on Piniella’s part, and equally as unforeseen considering that it seemed the one, three and four spots in the order were the only ones set in stone - apparently not. Looking at this move, what it does is take the three superstars in the lineup (Soriano, Lee and Ramirez) and spread them across five spots. This allows Cliff Floyd the luxury of hitting in front of the team’s leading RBI man, who nobody will want to face with runners on base. This will lead to fastballs for Floyd.

The same thing then goes for Ramirez with Mark DeRosa, the third-leading RBI guy on the team, batting behind him. I think this might be the most efficient and expansive way possible of maximizing the power in the Cubs lineup; a theory that’s easy to propose after that part of the order produced three home runs with such a line-up.

While the change inserts a lefty amidst what would otherwise be four straight right-handed hitters (a tactic primarily used for late innings when opposing coaches are forced to ponder bullpen match-ups), it’s also very difficult on a pitcher to face the three-four-five part of the order. Derek Lee, Cliff Floyd and Aramis Ramirez are all very similar hitters: they’re patient, contact hitters who can hit for power and for average, plus they can each execute the fundamentals of getting the ball on the ground to move a runner over, or hitting it deep for a sacrifice.

It also keeps the defense on their toes - while Lee can hit equally well to all parts of the field, Floyd and Ramirez tend to be pull-hitters and with one hitting from the left side of the plate and the other from the right, that forces the fielders, coaches, and battery to be constantly aware of shifting back and forth. This type of communication can be distracting from the presence of the speedy base-runners that precede this formidable trio - Soriano and Theriot.

If Lou stays with this lineup, I don’t see why it couldn’t continue to put up the Yankee-style numbers it should have been capable of all year, but has only now shown it can. This new and potentially productive breakthrough couldn’t have happened soon enough, as the Cubs find themselves once again, tied for first in the division with 19 games to go. With the upcoming series in St. Louis the only series the Cubs have remaining against a playoff hopeful, their opposition from here on out will involve many players who were in the minor leagues a month ago. With teams like Houston, Cincinnati, Florida and Pittsburg wanting to get a look at their prospects at the big league level, the Cubs will need to rely heavily on their advance scouts and - maybe more importantly - their minor league scouts, if they want to make it to October.

Glenn Anderson is a graduate of Chicagoland's Evanston Township High School and Pitzer College in beautiful southern California. He is a life-long, die hard Cubs fan; thankfully this has not damaged his psyche to the point where he can't intelligently comment on the team.

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