Maybe Baker Should Stay…

By: Peter Bernstein

It could happen any day. Soon, Dusty Baker may no longer be the Cubs manager. But a case can be made, and will be made here, for keeping Baker. Granted, it goes against my nature to support a manager of the second worst team in the league, but I’ll give it a try. A real effort.

To start, let’s review the highlights and lowlights of Baker’s three plus years with the Cubs.

Highlight: October 5, 2003

The high point of Baker’s job was the Cubs defeating the Atlanta Braves at Turner Field in the fifth game of the 2003 divisional playoff. While it has become legend that the 2003 Cubs were a baseball juggernaut, the truth is that they were a clearly inferior team to the Braves.

The Cubs were a .500 team at the All-Star break. They sneaked into the playoffs by a single game, won only 88 games and outscored their opponents by a mere 41 runs. The Braves, on the other hand, won 101 games and outscored their opponents by 167 runs. They had far more experienced starting pitching (Smoltz, Maddux, Hampton) and the league’s best offense in terms of run-scoring. But the young Cub pitchers held the Braves’ bats to 15 runs in the five-game set to advance to the league championship against the Marlins.

The 2003 season is for many best forgotten, but one cannot deny that Baker took to the playoffs a team that had won just 67 games the previous year. He and Jim Hendry significantly retooled the squad, adding Aramis Ramirez, Kenny Lofton and Randall Simon from Pittsburgh during the season. The Cubs went 19-8 in September and, excluding a meaningless final game, won eight out of 10 games decided by two runs or less. For the season, the Cubs were 27-17 in one-run games and 8-3 in extra inning contests.

Baker also successfully managed the many egos of that team, kept everyone happy, and showed some guts going with unproven Joe Borowski as his closer. (Yes, Joe Borowski. Remember when he was hot?)

At that time, nobody questioned it when people hung those “In Dusty We Trusty” signs.

Lowlight: Final Week of 2004 Season

The lowlight for Dusty Baker’s tenure as Cubs manager was not, in my opinion, the collapse against the Marlins or even the team’s dismal performance this year. The lowlight was the final week of the 2004 season. Then, the Cubs were poised to return to the playoffs with a better team than they had in 2003. Greg Maddux replaced Sean Estes and Nomar Garciaparra took over for Alex Gonzalez in late July. The 2004 Cubs outscored their opponents by 124 runs.

As late as September 24, the Cubs were 87-66, with a two-game lead in the wild card race. They had a favorable schedule, with six games against the out-of-contention Mets and Reds. But they lost five of those six games, and two out of three to the Braves to end their season.

Unlike the Game 6 loss to the Marlins, which happened in a flash, the 2004 collapse evolved slowly, giving Baker plenty of time to make adjustments. But he insisted on keeping Corey Patterson as his lead-off man despite a .190 batting average after August 31. Baker insisted on keeping LaTroy Hawkins as his closer, despite several blown saves down the stretch. Unlike 2003, the 2004 Cubs went 19-30 in one-run games, including five one-run losses in the teams final nine games.

The mess at leadoff hitter and closer certainly played a part.

Not only that, amidst the slide, Baker seemed to lose control of his team, allowing Moises Alou to feud with umpires, Kent Mercker to feud with the team’s announcers, and Sammy Sosa to feud with just about everyone else. A little less internal strife and a few more wins and the Cubs would have returned to the playoffs. At that point, who knows what could have happened?

Firing Baker can only be step one of a massive rebuilding process and rebuilding processes are not fun to watch. No one seriously believes a new manager could turn this team around.

 2003 and 2004 are ancient history now, but they do reveal important things about Baker as a manager. He reached the playoffs, which is rare in Wrigleyville. He is well-liked by his players, something that many fans attribute to Baker being too soft or tolerant of mistakes.Perhaps so, but the track record of managers who yell at their team is mixed. For every Earl Weaver, there are several Lee Elia’s.

Besides, what exactly should Baker yell to Greg Maddux (2-9 since the end of April), or to Matt Murton and Ronny Cedeno (two rookies who have been forced into regular action because the GM gave Baker no other choices)? And when he gets done yelling, which of his rookie pitchers is going to be his next starter?

The Grievances

My greatest criticism of Baker is that he seems inflexible in his managing and tied to an old-school approach that may not work anymore. While other managers have learned that there are times when the closer should be used in the eighth inning, Baker never does. He seems bound to honor the lefty-righty decision making with his relievers, ignoring the fact that replacing a good right-hander with a bad left-hander often give his team no statistical advantage. He obviously worked his young starting pitchers too much, and while my heart says seven innings isn’t too much to expect from a major leaguer, the injuries to Wood, Prior, and Matt Clement suggest otherwise.

It is also no coincidence that the Cubs are by far last in the league in walks in 2006. They finished last in 2005 and near the bottom in 2003 and 2004. Baker doesn’t seem to grasp the importance of getting on base, which manifested itself in his misuse of Corey Patterson as a lead-off man.

Perhaps the memory of losing the 2002 World Series to the Anaheim Angels is the explanation. That Angels team was a slap-the-ball around squad that struck out the least of any team in the AL, while finishing near the bottom of the league in walks. They were big on stolen bases and small on home runs, and it seems Baker desires this kind of team even if the times say different. (Perhaps Baker’s memory also explains his love affair with Neifi Perez, whose home run as a Colorado Rockie in 1998 forced the Giants into a one-game play-off loss against the Cubs.)

So Why Keep Him?

So why should Baker stay and why should a Cub fan want Baker to stay? Because firing Baker can only be step one of a massive rebuilding process and rebuilding processes are not fun to watch.

No one seriously believes a new manager could turn this team around. Instead, Baker’s firing would presage a late July salary dump. The Cubs could trade Juan Pierre (whose value has increased lately), let Greg Maddux go to a contender, see if they can flip Phil Nevin for a prospect, and look for anyone to take on part of the salaries of veteran players like Perez, Ryan Dempster, Todd Walker, Glendon Rusch and John Mabry.

Obviously, Baker wouldn’t want to manage a AAA team for two months, and even if he did, Baker wouldn’t be the right choice as a manager of a youth movement. So, option one is fire him, fire his players, and start over.

Option two is to resign Baker and, with that, the Tribune Company could dig into their deep pockets and buy themselves a contending team for next season. The decline of the Cardinals means the division is more up from grabs than it appeared at season’s start. The Cubs have the money to sign a proven (healthy) starter or two, they could get an All-Star in left field and/or shortstop. They could do what the 2006 Dodgers have done and spend their way into contention in a weak division.

Of course, the Dodgers also brought in a new manager in 2006, and nothing stops the Cubs from going to option three: firing Baker and buying a contending team for next year.

But if they do that, and fail again, all the blame will head toward GM Jim Hendry. Ironically, Hendry’s manager decision may have more to do with protecting his job than with Dusty Baker’s.

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Peter Bernstein teaches Economics at DePaul University and is a regular contributor to the Chicago Sports Review. His essay on steroids in baseball is appearing in the NY Times magazine, Front Page. Reach him at pbernstein@rcfecon.com.

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