From “Small Ball” to Powerhouse

By: Cyril Morong

Notice anything about the White Sox this year compared to last? Oh yeah, they are scoring a lot more runs. As of July 6 (85 games), they lead both leagues in runs (506), scoring 5.95 runs per game. Last year, through 86 games, the Sox had scored 413 runs (4.80 runs per game), good enough for 10th in baseball. So what are the Sox doing differently this year?Why so many more runs?

Last year the talk seemed to be that the Sox were good at playing “small ball” or “smart ball.” Are they doing more of that this year?

The table below shows how many SBs, SB attempts and sacrifice hits per game the Sox have had at about the half way point the last two years.

It sure looks like “small ball” is not the reason why the Sox are scoring about 1.1 more runs per game. Stealing is way down and even sacs are down (the 2005 data was through 77 games). Maybe there is some other reason. The table below shows the Sox on-base percentage (OBP) and slugging percentage (SLG) at mid-season in both 2005 and 2006.

So the Sox are getting alot more runners on base this year and hitting for alot more power than last year (another, better measure of power than SLG, called “isolated power” or SLG - AVG has also gone up for the Sox from .158 to .189). Since OBP and SLG are the two big ingredients in scoring, when you improve in these, you score more runs. The following formula provides a pretty accurate relationship between team OBP & SLG and runs per game (it explains 90% of the difference across teams over the years 2001-05).

R/G = 17.875*OBP + 11.11*SLG - 5.92

The formula predicts that the Sox in the first half of 2005 should score 4.54 runs per game (meaning they scored about 5.7% more than predicted). For 2006, it predicts 5.73 runs per game (meaning they are scoring about 3.9% more than predicted). So it sure looks like the higher OBP and SLG are the source of the greater scoring, since the Sox offense follows the formula fairly well. But what caused the increase in OBP and SLG? What has changed with the Sox since last year?

It is pretty clear that the one big change this year is having Jim Thome (.416 OBP & .648 SLG). Rowand is no longer in center field, but his replacement, Anderson, has not hit very well. The rest of the starting lineup is pretty much the same.

Podsednik leading off is certainly not the reason for the offensive explosion. So far this year he has a .349 OBP (less than the team OBP) and he has stolen 27 bases (while being caught 12 times). Last year before the All-Star break, he had a .369 OBP while stealing 44 bases (with 9 caught stealing).

Maybe Thome has had a good effect on the rest of the players. Here is how the other seven guys who were regulars last year have done in the first half of both seasons.

Generally, they are doing better. Thome gets on base alot more (.416 OBP) than the previous DH, Carl Everett (.317 OBP), did in the first half last year. Players normally hit better with runners on base, so having Thome helps, although sometimes players hit better with runners on simply because they are facing sub-par pitchers who put more guys on in the first place. Thome is a patient hitter who often walks.

This year the Sox are walking in about 8.8% of their plate appearances while last year it was 7.53% (so their walk rate is about 17% higher since 8.8/7.53 = 1.169).

Thome by himself is partly responsible for the increased walk rate. But even if you take him out of the equation, the Sox walk rate is 7.9%, still higher than last year.

So the Sox are being more patient which helps explain why their SLG has risen as well as their AVG (from .262 to .289).

Thome’s approach may have rubbed off on the other guys. If they have adopted his style of hitting, that might explain this high-power offense.

Tags: , , , ,

Cyril Morong is a regular contributor to The Chicago Sports Review. He can be reached at cyrilmorong@sbcglobal.net.

Share This Article

No Comments

No comments yet.

Comment On This Article