Early Cubs, Sox Assessments

By: Chicago Sports Review

Assessing the virtues or fallibility of a baseball team after one week feels a bit disingenuous, as though we are giving a thumbs up or down guess as to whether a marriage will last based upon the success of the honeymoon.

The Cubs marriage with winning may have just honeymooned with a killer deal at the Bellagio, whereas the White Sox might have gotten salmonella while traveling through Southern Spain. In other words, one group had a good time, the other did face down in foreign toilets, but the implications for longevity are hard to define.

That said, I’m happy to put the ass in assessment, and draw some early conclusions at random for both of these teams.

1. I’m not yet worried about Scott Podesdnik, but I do wonder about his approach. Podesdnik has started the season terribly, but the hole in his swing is between his ears right now, and because he’s a bright guy, that void should fill. This is because you can’t coach speed - like Pods’ ability to get down the line in 3.7 seconds - but you can question the willingness to trust that speed. Ichiro doesn’t have over 1100 hits in just five years because he drives the ball well. He does because he has a wonderful ability to understand his own weaknesses, and play only to his strengths. I’m not telling Pods to bunt five AB’s per game, but you have to ask, what if he did? Could he be making it to first safely between 1 and 2 times a game that way? I’d say, yes, and that’s just a sample. The implication, however, is that this looks like the same Podsednik who struggled toward the end of last year, but we know it’s not physical this time, so perhaps he should look elsewhere and fit his approach to his skills.

2. Matt Murton is good for the Cubs even when he doesn’t hit. This kind of case has been an anomaly for this franchise almost since Mark Grace went to Arizona. Last night Murton walked up to the plate, his average down to the mid-.220’s after a hot two-game start. However, before that at bat, his OBP was at .389. I’m not willing to sell my soul completely to the Sabermetricians, because I still think speed kills (and I don’t mean greenies … those don’t kill), but the Cubs have seen their offense stunted at times in recent years, and relied so heavily on the longball, because they considered walks boring, and swung far too often at pitchers pitches. In essence, on teams that know how to walk, slumping bats aren’t a death sentence. Murton may not hit .320 this year, but his OBP is going to add subtle potency to the latter portion of the Cubs lineup.

3. Speaking of OBP, watched Jim Thome lately? As of Sunday night, Thome had launched three homers, and taken eight walks, and had yet to strike out. Now, I would actually call it a negative if Thome had too few strikeouts, because I’d question if he was taking an aggressive enough approach while hitting in front of Paul Konerko. Yet his early returns will allow Ken Williams a cocktail, and better, Thome simply looks comfortable. When I spoke with Thome during pre-season, I asked if he had ordered his Edgar Martinez cookbook, and some oil for the pitching machine in the clubhouse for his new DH role. He said he was actually looking forward to the role, and would just have to make sure he stayed “into the game.” I think it’s clear he can. And I also think he’s healthy. And it’s not because the bat speed is there. I saw a healthy Jim Thome stand on first, and take off on a single up the middle, turn on the “jets” at second base, and easily take third during a weekend game against the Royals. That tells me the back and hammy are okay, because he’s a cerebral enough guy where he wouldn’t be stretching a play like that just to impress a coach who emphasizes taking the extra bag. Fact is, Jim Thome has always mashed when healthy. I see no reason for that to change now.

4. Speaking of taking the extra bag, there were the Cubs doing it. This is the difference with speed. It’s two completely different things. Sabermetric junkies often downplay speed. As new CSR contributor Dayn Perry points out in his new book, Rickey Henderson’s 200+ career homers meant more than his eight billion stolen bases from a production standpoint. But that also short-changes speed. Rickey Henderson was able to steal bases into his forties mostly on technique. (Ricky steals when Ricky wants to steal!) And while Juan Pierre, Matt Murton, Ronny Cedeno, Angel Pagan and Freddie Bynum have exactly ZERO stolen bases after the first week of the season between them, they change the complexion of the Cubs. They can take the extra base on single-double tweener balls, as Cedeno did Sunday. They use speed to beat out double play balls, as Pagan did late in the game on Sunday. In essence, they put pressure on the defense. On Sunday, Cedeno hit two balls at Scott Rolen. One hopped over Rolen’s head. But wasn’t Rolen playing pretty shallow against an eighth spot hitter? I thought so. Just a couple steps. Then, he hit a hard ball to Rolen late in the game that Rolen tried to stab, instead of surround. The ball took a bad hop, and headed out to left for a hit. Either play as a “speed sample” is a bit of conjecture, but I know that had Rolen fielded either ball, the play at first to throw out Cedeno would have been close. You think Rolen didn’t know that?

5. Call me about the “bad Sox staring pitching” in June. The Sox had, for them, what was a tough week in the starting pitching category. But put it in perspective, Sox worriers. All that “tough week” amounted to were shaky outings from Freddy Garcia and John Garland. Garcia is a veteran who throws 200+ innings in a bad year, and Garland just signed a deal, is putting some added pressure on himself, and relies on a cutter, which might take a few starts to snap into place. In other news, Mark Buehrle looks like Mark Buehrle, Jose Contreras looks like he did in September, and Javier Vazquez could be the second best starter on over 20 teams in the league right now. Oh yeah, and Brandon McCarthy might be in that category as well. Yeah, poor Sox and their tough week. That poor couple and the food poisoning they picked up on their honeymoon in Paris. Two words: save it.

6. Speaking of starting pitching, the Cubs don’t have it. That said, it’s April, and they have a couple (well-insured) insurance policies coming, as you, I, and anybody who’s read a box score over the last four years knows. The fact that the Cubs offense has picked up the pitching big time over the first week is a wonderful sign. This team had so little creativity in creating runs last year; good late inning pitching doomed them. Even if the Cardinals bullpen (see: Rincon, Isringhausen) couldn’t have won a small stuffed doll at the carnival with five grand in their pockets last night, the fact that three walks turned into a grand slam by Michael Barrett means something for this team. It means so much, in fact, that I think the Cubs are in great position to win games if they can limit the opposition to four runs or less over the first six innings of games. (I realize that’s not a remarkable breakthrough in baseball prognostication.) Call me an idiot, but I think this just means throwing strikes right now. I think that means Sean Marshall risks giving up a solo shot to Albert Pujols in the first inning Sunday night, instead of walking him and giving up a two run shot to Scott Rolen. I think that means Carlos Zambrano trusting his stuff, as he did against the Cardinals in his second start. The Cubs will survive this Prior and Wood pitching purgatory if they don’t give the devil a nod, and walk a lot of batters for this first six weeks of the season.

7. The Dusty contract extension situation means very little, and should never be used as an excuse for winning or losing. Seriously, this is baseball, and this stuff is always lingering. We’ve seen managers change teams with remarkable fluidity, with and without deals. The fact is, if Dusty Baker doesn’t want to be in Chicago, and if the Cubs don’t want him, even while he’s under contract, both sides are clever enough to make the other go away. Teams fire managers, and managers resign even when they have solid deals in place. I watched the Cubs pay Sammy Sosa to play left field for the Baltimore Orioles last year, so I know they have some feelings for Dusty. I also listened to half the city scream for Dusty’s removal after last season, so I know Dusty has some loyalty to the Cubs and wants to finish what he started when he took them five outs from the World Series … so I can clearly not choose the glass of wine in front of me? Well, sort of. The fact is, players are so used to uncertainty in their own contract situations that it’s naïve to consider their performance a reflection of how they feel about their managers’ contract situation. Are they shallow? Um, yeah. But for the Cubs, that’s a good thing. They can just play, and we can supply the BS that creates the Dusty extension chatter.

8. The Cubs pen is better than it was last year. Ryan Dempster is comfortable, Bobby Howry looks like Bobby Howry, and Scott Eyre is also pitching to form. One reason Jim Hendry had a good off-season (at least in this respect) is that he picked up guys who will pitch well, and nobody will be surprised. I realize this is a bit weird in Wrigleyville, to just assume good things might happen during the last nine outs of the game, but you may have to just deal with it. (Insert Old Style joke here, etc.) The Cubs pen is not deep, but at the top, it’s good. Is that a bad thing? No. Is it weird? Actually, yes. If you want a similar situation - not deep, but good - drive South. Really, the Sox are quite similar here.

9. Neither team is set in stone. On the South Side, Kenny Williams has brilliantly created a team that is loaded with movable contracts. If you thought they overpaid to lock up Jose Contreras last week, consider how many teams would be willing to take on his contract come late July. Mets? Yankees? Angels? Boston? Braves? Maybe. It’s a potentially long list. Seriously, with contracts like Garcia’s, Garland’s, and others, the Sox don’t just have good pitching, they have movable commodities. Concerned about the depth of talent in the Sox organization? Don’t be. They have two top prospects from any team that wants to get their hands on one of six starters (though nobody can touch Buehrle or McCarthy, barring a ridiculous offer). On the other side of town, it’s all too clear what Jim Hendry might have to shop for in early summer if things don’t come together in the training room. Dismissing any “Marshall for the Cy Young” chatter for now, we can all see what the Cubs will need, and might want to look for even if Prior and Wood show up. And don’t forget about Wade Miller. He did win fourteen games for three straight years in Houston not so long ago. Kerry Wood has won fourteen games … oh, never mind.

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