March Madness: Is Your Team “On the Bubble?”

By: Ben Nelson

It’s March and you know what that means. Other than painting the river and sucking down shamrock shakes it’s time to get ready for the sporting binge known as March Madness. But will your team be there? Don’t know yet? Do you really think your team is on the bubble?A better question would be: do you think there really is a bubble? Every year we go through the same ritual of Dick Vitale listing off two-dozen “bubble” teams that should absolutely get the chance to play in the NCAA Tournament. Then the selection committee is maligned in the media for leaving certain teams out. But the field of 65 has a lot less to do with the selection committee and a lot more to do with simple math.

First of all there are only 34 at-large bids available to be had. The vast majority of those at-large bids will go to members of the major conferences: ACC, Big East, Big 10, Big 12, SEC, C-USA and Pac 10. Sources vary on who the absolute locks are, but the general consensus is that only 10-12 bids would remain for the bubble teams to fight for.

Yet at the same time, there are eighteen bubble teams listed on ESPN.com. CNNSI.com has 36. Of course, I guess that’s why they call it “on the bubble.” But aren’t they just fostering unrealistic expectations to maintain interest and improve ratings. A week before their upset of #24 Louisville, The DePaulia (the DePaul student newspaper) ran a story about the Blue Demons’ tournament chances. They listed an 89-81 loss to Michigan State and wins against five unranked teams as part of their “Tournament Resume.”

So what does it take to be off the supposed bubble and into the dance? A look at last years tournament field may tell you a few things. Every team with twenty wins from one of the major conferences got in. The rest of the at-large entrants had an RPI below 40 with the sole exception of NC State (18-12, RPI 53). This exception would have been eliminated had Georgia (19-8, RPI 5) not been taken out of contention by a late-season scandal.

So if you want to know you team’s chances of getting in the tournament, ask three questions. A. Can my team win twenty games? B. Will our RPI be lower than forty? C. Will any of the teams that can answer yes to A&B be investigated in the next week? If you answered no to any of those questions, then win the conference tournament or say hello NIT.

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